Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.342125 0.388560 0.438964 0.497744 0.564419 0.637712 0.724414
2025-09-28 0.269474 0.329973 0.400676 0.489420 0.597883 0.726211 0.889717
2025-10-05 0.228617 0.299559 0.388160 0.506984 0.662305 0.858660 1.126165
2025-10-12 0.190185 0.265305 0.365063 0.507303 0.705165 0.971110 1.356607
2025-10-19 0.162170 0.239790 0.348923 0.513666 0.756489 1.102027 1.632701
2025-10-26 0.141938 0.221595 0.339716 0.527780 0.820373 1.259519 1.971386
2025-11-02 0.118288 0.194286 0.312728 0.510929 0.835272 1.346925 2.219324
2025-11-09 0.097590 0.168102 0.283236 0.485113 0.831508 1.404082 2.427795
2025-11-16 0.083707 0.150799 0.265264 0.475001 0.851327 1.501382 2.716836
2025-11-23 0.072030 0.135373 0.248017 0.463181 0.865895 1.591090 3.005666
2025-11-30 0.065462 0.128074 0.243890 0.474030 0.922402 1.762383 3.468155
2025-12-07 0.056371 0.114574 0.226326 0.456875 0.923469 1.831001 3.745734
2025-12-14 0.049570 0.104744 0.214788 0.450667 0.946949 1.949889 4.150103
2025-12-21 0.043451 0.095332 0.202688 0.441487 0.963155 2.057190 4.549671
2025-12-28 0.040324 0.091740 0.201979 0.456110 1.031785 2.283038 5.239656
2026-01-04 0.036313 0.085558 0.194817 0.455529 1.067152 2.443217 5.811379
2026-01-11 0.033220 0.080965 0.190463 0.460614 1.116224 2.641359 6.504007
2026-01-18 0.030947 0.077938 0.189222 0.472805 1.183986 2.892827 7.366348
2026-01-25 0.027265 0.070870 0.177379 0.457394 1.182226 2.979108 7.835760
2026-02-01 0.023635 0.063344 0.163280 0.434074 1.156862 3.003674 8.152110
2026-02-08 0.021183 0.058488 0.155148 0.424876 1.166636 3.118518 8.726285
2026-02-15 0.018957 0.053877 0.146952 0.414201 1.170770 3.219365 9.279903
2026-02-22 0.017841 0.052158 0.146187 0.423822 1.232395 3.483869 10.338158